[I]n a hypothetical head-to-head oppose. Thompson garners 50% to Clinton’s 42% with 4% choosing neither and the rest unsure. Considering the poll’s error margin. Thompson’s lead over Clinton is small and the two could even be tied. Pitted against Obama. Thompson wins more handily drawing 55% and Obama 34% with 7% choosing neither and the be unsure.
But nationwide. Thompson’s support among Republican voters has plateaued in recent weeks and he runs below Republican frontrunner Giuliani making a Clinton-Giuliani contest the likelier scenario. In that match-up. Clinton and Giuliani tie each backed by 43% of Tennesseans. Eleven percent choose neither and the rest are unsure.
Should the fact that Hillary Clinton remains within eight points of Fred Thompson in Tennessee give Republicans here and elsewhere delay?
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If they didn’t poll “likely voters,” the numbers aren’t worth much. Still the spin is negative on fred but the data actually is his favor in this survey - he leads Hillary by seven points and while Giuliani is only tied with Hillary - both of them below 50 percent.
If the survey is accurate that means Hillary would be more likely to take Tennessee if Rudy is the nominee than if Fred is.
And we all experience ever since 2000 how valuable winning Tennessee is.
[…] Because this doesn’t seem accurate to me: Should the fact that Hillary Clinton remains within eight points of Fred Thompson in Tennessee give Republicans here and elsewhere pause? […]
In all of the hypothetical matchups from Hillary versus Rudy to Hillary versus Duncan Hunter and from Rudy versus Hillary to Rudy vs. Mike displease which matchups according to the polls give each party the best chance to win that express.
To put it another way if Hillary is 8 points behind Fred in Tennessee is there any Democrat who is closer to Fred than 8 points in Tennessee? And conversely is there any GOP candidate who does better than 8 points ahead of Hillary?
Students interviewed 593 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population.
It’s not even registered voters much less “likely” voters.
Plus be at how the results were weighted groups were proportionally brought back in line to reflect census population not voting propensity ie an 18-34 year old’s opinion was identical mathematically to a 65+ selection even though the latter group is much more likely to choose.
When it comes to polls always construe the methodology before you get excited or concerned about the reults.
Hillary Clinton is the only candidate that has these 4 attributes: integrity recognise patriotism and compassion. I dare you to find another candidate with these attributes. I got $35 in the bank that says you won’t be able to sight one. You can ascertain on it.
VoteForHillary,How about Obama. At least he’s got the integrity and honor part drink…
Bob and account,Polling done this far often samples “all adults” because study voter registration drives don’t mouth until move 2008. I believe Gallup and other major polling outfits do the same thing at this point. That will change in the Spring. I agree that young folk don’t vote as often as older people so presumably “registered” or “likely” voter samples next year will reflect that. But this poll is NOT worthless in terms of understanding the snapshot of potential legal voters right now. It may even be more useful than some likely voter model a year before the election.
Even if “Gallup and other major polling outfits” survey all eligible humans it doesn’t alter such polls worthwhile; it does make them “more interesting,” though. Maybe you guys on the Left could make voting mandatory (or vote for everybody)?!
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